Good and bad out of the Winter Meetings in Nashville:

Bad: Felix Pie, Sam Fuld, Tyler Colvin, and Jeff Samardzija are "untouchables," according to Jim Hendry. All four are nice prospects, but why would any of them be off-limits in a trade?

Good: Lou Piniella says that Ryan Dempster does not have a starting rotation spot locked up. Kevin Hart, Sean Gallagher, and Sean Marshall will get opportunities as well.

Bad: Ryan Theriot has locked up the starting shortstop spot for 2008, according to Piniella. If Dempster is going to have competition, why won't Theriot? What harm exists in letting Ronny Cedeno compete for the starting job in spring training?

Good: The Cubs are exploring a trade for Baltimore Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts, reports the Baltimore Sun. Roberts just turned 30 and has had .305, .264, .285 EqA's the past three seasons with good defense. Another Cubs Blog has more on Roberts rumors.

Good: A number of teams are interested in Mark Prior, hopefully driving up the asking price.

Who Knows?: The Cubs obtained Twins relief pitcher Tim Lahey in today's Rule 5 draft. Lahey, 25, had a 3.45 ERA in 78.1 innings in double-A last year, with 56 K's and 33 BB's. Another Cubs Blog has more on Lahey. The Cubs lost swingman Randy Wells, who had a 4.52 ERA in 95.2 innings for triple-A Iowa last year, striking out 101 and walking 41.

Here's a story that will likely go nowhere, but the Chicago Tribune's Fred Mitchell reports that Steve Stone becoming the Cubs' GM is "a distinct possibility if Chicago financier Lou Weisbach becomes the new owner." Two paragraphs later, Mitchell writes that Stone "would become the general manager if the Weisbach group were to land the team." (Emphasis added.)

When Stone returned in 2003 to save us from Joe Carter, he reportedly told Jim Hendry that he was no longer after his job, that he was content to be a broadcaster. That is presumably no longer the case after the 2004 fall-out. The Sun-Times' Chris De Luca reported in April that Stone was interested in a front office position following the change in ownership.

More indications that Felix Pie has a good chance of leaving spring training this year as the Cubs' starting center fielder. (See also "Is Pie the Man in Center?") MLB.com reports:

The Cubs will have their first full-squad workout in one month. Hendry isn't finished yet.

"In a perfect world, I'd like to tinker with the outfield," Hendry said. "We have a very solid group. We're counting on our young kid, Felix Pie, being a factor, whether it's Opening Day or down the road shortly after. When you get out your wish list, you can't make it all about buying new players. You want to have your own guys develop, too."

Additionally, Player Development Director Oneri Fleita says that Pie "will be given a chance to come in and have some fun. Let's see what happens."

It appears that the Cubs will not expect Pie to hit much. MLB.com also quotes Fleita as saying, "In this lineup, we don't need him to hit, we need his defense."

This is an exciting time to be a Cubs fan. I'm not sure where Jim Hendry is taking us, or even if Hendry knows where he's leading us, but he obviously has been given a lot of money to spend and a mandate to spend it; so, spend away he does. "Free agent Alfonso Soriano and the Chicago Cubs have reached a preliminary agreement on an eight-year contract worth about $136 million, a major league official told The Associated Press on Sunday. The deal is contingent on Soriano passing a physical." The Tribune's Paul Sullivan states that the deal "is expected to be announced on Monday."

Soriano will presumably be the Cubs' centerfielder and leadoff hitter. Or, he could nudge Matt Murton out of leftfield if the Cubs find a centerfielder elsewhere or re-sign Juan Pierre. Soriano had a very good 107 Rate2 in leftfield in 2006, his first.

Before the 2006 season, I wrote on how Todd Walker had been a better player than Soriano over 2004-05, on a rate basis (this being when Soriano was still a second baseman). Walker, of course, has a hard time keeping a full time job. Soriano, on the other hand, reversed his decline in 2006 and now has apparently received the fifth highest total dollar value contract in MLB history.

A lot of attention is given to the 46 homers Soriano hit in 2006, besting his career high by 7. He may not ever hit 46 again, but Soriano is likely to continue to contribute power over much of the life of the contract. But if the contract has even a chance of working out for the Cubs, the BB% Soriano posted in 2006 is going to have to be a new established level of play:

In his first season of full-time play last year, at age 31, DeRosa hit .296/.357/.456, good for an adjusted OPS 3% above league average. For his career, DeRosa has an adjusted OPS 5% below league average. DeRosa will presumably be the favorite for starting second baseman (career 106 Rate2 in 114 games). But he could also be the shortstop (career 113 Rate2 in 137 games) if Cesar Izturis gets hurt or can't hit. He could also be a platoon partner for Jacque Jones in rightfield (career 106 Rate2 in 90 games). DeRosa has an 876 OPS against lefties the past three seasons. In other words, DeRosa can play a number of positions like Jose Macias and Freddie Bynum, but plays them better and also has some adeptness at the plate. His flexibility provides options should Ryan Theriot prove that September was no fluke.

Three years and into an age 34 season is a long contract for someone like DeRosa, and Jim Hendry has a history of paying above market prices for role players, but DeRosa is useful and can help the Cubs win if used properly.

Elsewhere:

So much for my thought that the media had made out Jim Hendry's enthusiasm for Lou Piniella to be more than it really was. Peter Gammons has "a source" telling him that "Lou Piniella could be the manager of the Chicago Cubs before the World Series begins. . . . The Chicago Sun-Times first reported Saturday that negotiations between the Cubs and Piniella could begin Monday."

Chris Le Duca's Sun-Times article states:

By the end of next week, Lou Piniella is expected to be named the 48th manager in Cubs history.

Told Friday by the Sun-Times that all signs pointed to the job being his, Piniella stepped back, smiled and politely declined to comment during a pivotal day in the process.

Le Duca goes on to write: "After Hendry interviewed Cubs broadcaster Bob Brenly on Thursday, sources said the GM got the unofficial green light from the San Diego Padres to interview their manager, Bruce Bochy. But according to several sources, Hendry's superiors quickly shot down the idea of pursuing Bochy -- a well-respected manager who has little sex appeal in Chicago."

So this decision is based in significant part on marketing.

In an article mostly speculating about the Cubs acquiring Alex Rodriguez, the Chicago Tribune's Paul Sullivan quotes Jim Hendry as saying about Lou Piniella: "I enjoyed my time talking to Lou Piniella. He's an outstanding baseball person and for all the things he has accomplished in the game he certainly deserves to be a candidate." Notice that Hendry believes Piniella deserves to be a candidate, as if he is not one already. Also notice that Piniella deserves to be one for all of the things he has accomplished in the game, not because he would be a good fit for the Cubs. Either Hendry is trying to depress Piniella's market price, or he just isn't that enthused about him. Or, I'm reading too much into Hendry's statement.

The shake-up at the Cubs is certainly understandable and, perhaps, even over-due. But while we hear John McDonough saying the goal is to bring the World Series to Wrigley Field, what exactly is the upper management strategy that is going to do that? At this point we have a general manager, Jim Hendry, whose success is highly questionable. What is the thinking at the Tribune Company? Is Hendry capable of leading a more successful attempt than heretofaore to improve the team? If so why? Was McPhail an impediment? (I hardly think so). Are they so devoid of direction that they are just keeping Hendry around because its cheaper than buying him out and it will allow time to think things through? How many years do they need to think things through? What manager interviewing or coming into this opening is going to be sure of his position or future?

The Daily Herald's Bruce Miles has a good article in today's paper on the disappointment of the MacPhail era: "MacPhail era one of unfulfilled promise."

Jim Hendry has not had a good trade in a couple of seasons. He's now back in the game. Somehow, he convinced the Detroit Tigers to take Neifi Perez and his $2.5M 2007 contract, and the Cubs even received a player in return: 22-year-old minor league catcher Chris Robinson.

On the cusp of a possible contract extension for general manager Jim Hendry, the Chicago Tribune's Paul Sullivan lists his five best and worst moves made by Hendry (clearly done looking in the rear-view mirror). In the best list, Sullivan rightly lists three trades that ended up being steals: 1) Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton for Bobby Hill, Jose Hernandez, and Matt Bruback in July 2003; 2) Derrek Lee for Hee Seop Choi in November 2003; and 3) Mark Grudzielanek and Eric Karros for Todd Hundley in December 2002.

Sullivan also includes the Ryan Dempster signing and the trade of Sammy Sosa, but I think you still have to include the Nomar Garciaparra trade in July 2004 as one of Hendry's best moves, even though Garciaparra ended up too injured in his tenure in Chicago to really contribute. In addition to Garciaparra, Hendry also received Matt Murton, and did so without giving up Matt Clement. In exchange, Hendry gave up just Alex Gonzalez, Francis Beltran, Brendan Harris, and Justin Jones.