Cubs Continue to Spend: Soriano for $136M

Don't really know what to think about this. I'm certainly haven't been of the mind that the Cubs haven't had success because they haven't spent enough, so I'm not all that impressed by their newfound willingness to spend the NL into submission. And eight years? Not being a fan of long-term contracts to begin with, hearing that makes my ears hurt very badly.

That said, I would disagree, kind of, with David's assessment that the Cubs have "signed a Manny Ramirez like contract without being anywhere near as good as Manny." It would be accurate to say that Soriano is nowhere near as good of a hitter as Manny, but if Soriano runs the bases well and plays good outfield defense, he may be as valuable as Manny. Soriano has three years in the last 5 with a WARP3 over 10; Manny only has one in his career.

Of course, in his two years in Texas, Soriano was definitely not as good as Manny. His first year here, he hit .280/.324/.484. The second, he put up a .268/.309/.512. If the Cubs get the Soriano that spent two years here in the Metroplex, this will end up being the worst free agent signing of all time.

So, that scares me. I guess on the whole, this strikes me as an enormously high-risk kind of deal. Soriano is probably a better player than I've given him credit for in the past, but ... well, a lot depends on what happens. If he can maintain something close to his 2005 offensive production, and play a decent center, he'll probably be one of the best players in the game. That would go a long way towards justifying this.

And if he can't, then this is the second deal in a week that makes the task facing Hendry's successor much more difficult.

On the bright side, I'm glad that the Cubs have continued to aggressively try to address their biggest weaknesses. In 2005 middle relief and lead-off hitter were lacking, so they spend a bunch of money on Eyre, Pierre, and another reliever.

Now they think they need some pop in the lineup and a lead-off hitter to replace Pierre, so they get the best power hitter available and one who could lead off.

Getting Soriano is a great move, especially if you believe he can play CF (I have some doubts). But the contract -- yuck and double yuck. At 4/$68 there's a chance he could be worth it if he propels the Cubs into the playoffs or there's so much money going around that $17M isn't as bad as it looks today. But the last 4/$68 is a disaster; from ages 35-38, there's no way he's worth $8.5M/year much less the $17M he's getting. And it's worse if the contract is backloaded. Basically you're hoping that Soriano keeps up his 2006 career year level of play for 2 or 3 years then his career goes downhill so fast that he retires and you can get out of paying the last 2 or 3 years. And that's one h*ll of a gamble to take.

That said, I don't cut the paychecks and adding Soriano will make the Cubs more fun to watch in the short term.

Let's hear it for FearlessBear!! The New York Times picked up on the thought that there is no way the Tribune Company would spend $136 Million Dollars without intending to sell the Team. [url=http:///]See link[/url].
Murray Chass, the sportswriter says in his article: "If Tribune intended to hold onto the Chicago Cubs, the Cubs would not be signing Alfonso Soriano to an eight-year contract for $136 million."

Respectfully,
FEARLESS BEAR